What Is the Average Tax Refund in 2026?

The IRS publishes average refund figures weekly during filing season at IRS.gov/statistics/filing-season-statistics, and the number shifts as more returns are processed. Rather than citing a single dollar figure that would quickly become outdated, this article explains what drives refund sizes, how the new OBBBA deductions may push the 2026 average higher, and how to estimate your own refund instead of relying on a national average that may not reflect your situation at all.

What drives the average refund

The average tax refund is a function of millions of individual tax situations. The main factors that determine the national average are:

• Withholding accuracy: When employers withhold more tax than employees actually owe, refunds go up. When withholding is close to actual liability, refunds shrink. W-4 changes, life events, and employer payroll settings all affect withholding accuracy.
• Refundable credits: The EITC and the refundable portion of the CTC (up to $1,700per child) add directly to refunds. Years with expanded credits see higher average refunds.
• Tax law changes: New deductions or credits, like the OBBBA provisions, change how much tax people owe. If liability drops but withholding stays the same, refunds increase.
• Income growth: Rising wages increase both withholding and tax liability. The net effect on refunds depends on whether withholding tables keep pace with bracket inflation adjustments.

Why we do not cite a specific average

We intentionally do not state a specific average refund dollar amount because:

• The number changes weekly: Early filers tend to have different refund profiles than late filers. The average reported in February is different from the average in June.
• Averages are misleading: A small number of very large refunds (families with multiple children, EITC, and overwithholding) pull the average up. The median refund is typically lower.
• Your refund is personal: The average tells you nothing about what you will receive. A single filer earning $90,000 and a head of household with four children earning $45,000 live in completely different refund universes.

For the official, current average, check the IRS Filing Season Statistics page directly.

Factors that increase refunds

If you want to understand why some filers get large refunds, here are the most common drivers:

• Child Tax Credit: Each qualifying child provides up to $2,200 in credit. Four children means up to $8,800 in CTC alone. Use the CTC calculator to see your amount.
• Earned Income Tax Credit: This fully refundable credit can be worth thousands of dollars for low-to-moderate income workers with children. See IRS.gov for EITC tables.
• Overwithholding: Some filers have more withheld than necessary, either by choice (as forced savings) or because their W-4 is outdated.
• Above-the-line deductions: Pre-tax 401(k) contributions, HSA contributions, and the new OBBBA deductions all reduce taxable income without requiring itemization.

How OBBBA deductions may change the average

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced two new above-the-line deductions starting in tax year 2025:

• Tips deduction: Up to $25,000 per taxpayer for qualified tips in customarily tipped occupations.
• Overtime deduction: Up to $12,500 (single/HoH) or $25,000 (MFJ) for overtime premium pay.

For workers who qualify, these deductions reduce federal income tax liability. If employers did not adjust withholding to account for the new deductions (which many did not, especially in the first year), the result is a larger-than-expected refund at filing time.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports millions of workers in tipped occupations and millions more who regularly work overtime. If a significant portion of these workers claim the deductions without having adjusted their withholding, the national average refund could be noticeably higher than in prior years.

To see how OBBBA deductions affect your specific refund, read How OBBBA Deductions Affect Your Tax Refund.

Your refund vs. the average

Comparing your refund to the national average is like comparing your height to the national average height. It tells you where you fall relative to other people, but it does not tell you whether your number is "right."

A very large refund might feel like a windfall, but it means you overpaid throughout the year. That money could have been in your paycheck earning interest or paying down debt. A small refund or even a small balance due can actually indicate that your withholding was well-calibrated.

The "ideal" refund is one that is close to zero, meaning your payments throughout the year closely matched your actual tax liability. If you prefer a specific refund target (say, $1,000 as a small buffer), you can adjust your W-4 accordingly.

How to estimate your refund

Rather than guessing based on averages, calculate your estimated refund using your own numbers:

1. Gather your YTD gross pay and YTD federal withholding from your last pay stub.
2. Subtract your standard deduction ($16,100 single, $32,200 MFJ) and any above-the-line deductions.
3. Apply the 2026 federal tax brackets to your taxable income.
4. Subtract any credits (CTC, EITC, education credits, etc.).
5. Compare the result to your total withholding. The difference is your estimated refund (or balance due).

For a step-by-step walkthrough, see How to Estimate Your Tax Refund from Your Last Pay Stub. Or skip the manual math and use the tax refund estimator.